The Globe and Mail reports in its Monday edition that American investors are shorting Canadian
bank stocks, but if there is a problem
with domestic banks, it certainly
is not valuation levels.
The Globe's Scott Barlow writes that he suspects the
Canadian bank short interest is
part of a two-sided trade that has made the investment strategy
extremely profitable once currency
fluctuations are taken into
account.
Compare the value of $10,000 Canadian dollars
invested in each of the KBW
index of United States bank stocks and the
S&P/TSX bank index. Over the
past 12 months, the U.S. bank index
has generated a 31-per-cent
return that far outdistanced the
5.8-per-cent profit from Canadian
banks.
There are risks for Canadian
banks stocks -- the frothy housing
market is the most prominent
example. Mr. Barlow, however, does not believe Canadians
should panic about U.S.
pessimism regarding our Big Six banks.
He notes the most effective valuation tool
for banks stocks signals stronger
future performance. Mr. Barlow says the
Americans are likely playing a
currency and relative value game
-- Canadian versus U.S. banks --
rather than predicting disaster
ahead for domestic bank stocks.
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