The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday, May 20, edition Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is sticking to his conviction that the Canadian economy is on the cusp of an export-led rebound after stalling early this year. The Globe's Barrie McKenna writes that Mr. Poloz says the recovery still faces "choppy waters" -- most significantly from the threat that crude prices could start falling again, provoking a new round of cancelled oil patch investments. "If there is no further downdraft, then we think our forecast of a partial rebound will hold up," says Mr. Poloz. The bank's latest forecast, released in April, calls for no growth in the first quarter, followed by growth of 1.8 per cent, 2.8 per cent and 2.5 per cent in the next three quarters. The BOC's next scheduled interest-rate announcement is next week. But most economists expect the bank to keep its overnight rate steady at 0.75 per cent, where it has been since a surprise rate cut in January. Bank of Montreal senior economist Benjamin Reitzes says Mr. Poloz is sticking to the script the BOC laid out in its April forecast, "all but ignoring the potential downside risk coming from the recent spate of soft U.S. data."