The Financial Post reports in its Tuesday, Sept. 9, edition that RBC Capital Markets analyst Darko Mihelic is more cautious on bank stocks following third quarter results. The Post's John Shmuel writes in the Trading Desk column that Mr. Mihelic says some cracks are starting to appear despite the strong showing. He notes that banks see net interest margin (NIM) continuing to be pressured in the near term. Competition, liquidity requirements and the potential for higher interest rates mean that NIM growth could be impacted next year. Mr. Mihelic notes that Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Toronto-Dominion Bank both said they were willing to commence new spending initiatives, but the bank group as a whole did not outline clear growth strategies. Finally, Mr. Mihelic notes that bank executives hint that the "de facto minimum" Basel III Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio was climbing. The ratio is currently set at 8 per cent. Mr. Mihelic, however, says the banks now see the minimum they should hold as somewhere between 9.5 per cent and 10 per cent. He says, "This 'new' higher minimum pushes out strong buyback activity until possibly 2016, as 'excess' capital is currently not overly abundant for most banks."
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