The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that RBC analyst Stephen
Walker says the benefits of Barrick Gold's ($14.22) deleveraging and cost-reduction initiatives
have now been priced in by
the market (all figures U.S.). The Globe's David Leeder writes in the Eye On Equities column that Mr. Walker, expecting the focus of investors
to shift toward capital allocation
priorities, joint ventures and
the resolution of its dispute in Tanzania, cut Barrick
to "sector perform" from
"outperform."
His share target fell to $18 from $21, 60 cents above the consensus. Mr. Walker says in a note: "After its debt reduction target is achieved, from 2019 to 2021 at gold prices of $1,200 to $1,300 per ounce, we estimate $450-million to $700-million per year of average net cash flow to Barrick after dividends. We expect $1.1–billion to $1.3-billion per year of capex to maintain a four million to 4.5 million ounce production profile to 2022 (including projects). Share buybacks and dividend increases are unlikely near-term, and we expect excess capital to be directed to new mine development. The challenge we see at current gold price levels would be financing multibillion-dollar projects like Lama or Donlin."
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