The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday, Dec. 31, edition that many long-time skeptics are starting 2017
with surprisingly rosy expectations for
metal prices.
The Globe's Ian McGugan writes that Goldman Sachs in November was bullish on
raw materials for the first time in four
years. Goldman sees an upswing
in manufacturing around the world
that will increase demand for many commodities.
Analyst Jeff Currie says, "Commodity markets are entering a cyclically
stronger environment."
Citigroup analyst Edward Morse says, "Most commodities are ending 2016 in
positive territory with momentum continuing
for even higher returns in 2017 and
2018." Citi says faster
growth in the global economy should
boost demand. Just as important, Citi says, the huge
wave of new production that drowned
markets in gluts of many raw materials
after 2011 may finally be ebbing.
Several years of falling prices have discouraged
fresh projects and brought supply
and demand back into sync.
While more
gains may be in store for many raw materials,
some metals face obvious threats.
Gold, for instance, could feel more pain
if the U.S. Federal Reserve follows through
on its plan to raise interest rates.
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