The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday, Nov. 26, edition that gold prices are up about $40
an ounce, to just under
$1,200, since the end of October,
when they hit a four-year low of
$1,160. The Globe's Eric Reguly writes that gold shares, however, are not responding.
With the exception of Kinross Gold, one of
the industry's hardest-hit players
thanks to its Russian mines, the
prices of the biggies have
dropped over the past month.
Mr. Reguly says the rising greenback could explain part of the
share slump. Mr. Reguly believes falling oil prices are also playing a role.
He is convinced falling oil prices are triggering
disinflation everywhere. Mr. Reguly says in
Europe, outright deflation is a
clear and present danger, which
is why the European Central Bank
is warming up the market to the
idea of American-style quantitative easing.
If you buy gold as an inflation
hedge, it follows that disinflation
or deflation would encourage you
to sell gold. Mr. Reguly says that is what
appears to be happening, thanks
in good part to oil prices that
have fallen by 30 per cent since
June. Societe Generale analyst Michael Haigh believes
gold's recent modest rally could be
short-lived.
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