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by Stockwatch Business Reporter

West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery added 38 cents to $46.46 on the New York Merc, while Brent for August added 43 cents to $48.72 (all figures in this para U.S.). Western Canadian Select traded at a discount of $10.35 to WTI ($36.11), unchanged. Natural gas for July lost five cents to $2.97. The TSX energy index added a fraction to close at 184.08.

After three years of cuts to the long-term forecast for Canadian crude production, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is now calling for a 33-per-cent increase over 14 years. According to CAPP's latest annual "Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Transportation" report, released this morning, Canadian crude production will reach 5.12 million barrels a day in 2030, up from 3.85 million barrels a day in 2016. By comparison, CAPP's prediction last year was that production would reach just 4.93 million barrels a day in 2030. Then as now, the expectation is that the oil sands will be the main source of the increase. CAPP's new report says Western Canada as a whole will contribute 4.93 million barrels a day in 2030, up from 3.64 million in 2016. This will dwarf Eastern Canada's contribution, most of which comes from three offshore fields, including the White Rose project. White Rose operator Husky Energy Inc. (HSE: $15.81) announced last month that the "next chapter" of the project, called West White Rose, has been approved to start production in 2022. In part because of this approval, CAPP says Eastern Canadian production as a whole will reach 290,000 barrels a day in 2025 (up from 210,000 in 2016), before sliding to 190,000 in 2030. Western Canada's rising contribution will more than offset this drop.

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