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Energy Summary for Sept. 30, 2016

2016-09-30 20:24 ET - Market Summary

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by Stockwatch Business Reporter

West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery added 22 cents to $48.05 on the New York Merc, while Brent for November was unchanged at $49.06 (all figures in this para U.S.). Western Canadian Select traded at a discount of $13.95 to WTI ($34.10), unchanged. Natural gas for November lost five cents to $2.90. The TSX energy index lost a fraction to close at 199.79.

EnCana Corp. (ECA) added 42 cents to $13.71 on 13.4 million shares, on top of the $1.54 it added over the previous two days, thanks to rising oil prices and rosy analyst reports. Following the company's $1-billion (U.S.) offering of $9.35 (U.S.) shares last week, and ahead of its investor day to be held next week, the analysts at both Citi and CIBC boosted their price targets today to $13 (U.S.) from $10 (U.S.) and to $12 (U.S.) from $8 (U.S.), respectively. They both cited the offering's expected effects on EnCana's balance sheet and assets. CIBC's Arthur Grayfer is particularly enamoured of one of the assets, writing, "It's All About The Permian," a liquids-rich play in Texas. (This is one of EnCana's four core plays, with the others being the Texas Eagle Ford, the Alberta Duvernay and the Alberta/B.C. Montney. They currently contribute about three-quarters of total production.) Mr. Grayfer sees "no question that EnCana has high-quality Permian assets that offer meaningful scalability." EnCana has said it will direct most of its 2017 budget to the Permian, leading Mr. Grayfer to estimate that the company will drill around 130 net horizontal wells there next year. He concludes that the Permian has "remarkable potential." Then he says it is not "All About the Permian" after all, because "It's Also About 2018." His forecasts show EnCana entering 2018 with about net debt of nearly $4.5-billion, up from $3.6-billion at the end of this year. This "doesn't look fantastic from a leverage perspective," says Mr. Grayfer. Still, he reckons that if WTI oil prices average $55 (U.S.) or higher in 2018, EnCana should be able to keep its debt-to-cash-flow ratio under 3.0 times.

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