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Energy Summary for Sept. 11, 2015

2015-09-11 20:10 ET - Market Summary

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by Stockwatch Business Reporter

West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery lost $1.29 to $44.63 on the New York Merc, while Brent for October lost 75 cents to $48.14 (all figures in this para U.S.). Western Canadian Select traded at a discount of $13.45 to WTI ($31.18), down from a discount of $13.40. Natural gas for October added one cent to $2.693. The TSX energy index lost 5.23 points to close at 165.53.

In its monthly report for September, released today, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast that low oil prices will force non-OPEC producers -- particularly in the United States, Russia and the North Sea -- to reduce output by half a million barrels a day in 2016, the largest drop in 24 years. By comparison, the previous monthly report had forecast that non-OPEC production would shrink by just 200,000 barrels a day next year. Meanwhile, global oil demand growth is now expected to reach a five-year high of 1.7 million barrels a day this year before easing to a still-above-trend 1.4 million barrels a day in 2016, thanks a "strengthening macroeconomic backdrop," stated the new report. This is more than the previous report had forecast. Predictions of rising demand and falling supply might normally put investors in a bullish mood on prices, but they seemed to ignore the IEA's report in favour of a very different one from Goldman Sachs, which lowered its WTI and Brent forecasts for 2015 and 2016, and said prices could go as low as $20 (U.S.) a barrel in a doomsday scenario. It cited rising OPEC production, resilient non-OPEC production and slowing demand growth, which could weaken even further amid China's economic slowdown.

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